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Alpine Food Company Supply Chain Case Study

For many years, Alpine Food Company has operated a restaurant in a resort community near ski area of Vancouver. The restaurant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year, when the ski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area. Over the years, the restaurant has developed and maintained a reputation as one of the “must visit” places in that region of Vancouver. The founders of the Apline Food Company, due to personal preferences, have decided to sell the restaurant and open a bed and breakfast on a beautiful beach in Wasaga. To make this happen, the founders would have to sell the restaurant for the right price. The price of the business would be based on the value of the property and equipment, as well as projections of future income. A forecast of sales for the next year is needed to help in the determination of the value of the restaurant. Monthly sales (in $1,000s) for the past 3 years are provided in the table below. ORDER YOUR PAPER NOW

Month Y1 Y2 Y3
Jan 438 444 450
Feb 420 425 438
Mar 414 423 434
April 318 331 338
May 306 318 331
Jun 240 245 254
Jul 240 255 264
Aug 216 223 231
Sept 198 210 224
Oct 255 233 243
Nov 270 278 289
Dec 315 322 335

Questions

1. Prepare a graph of the data. On this same graph, plot a 12-month moving average forecast for each month in the past 3 years (when applicable). (1) Compare the shape of the curves of the actual sales data and the 12-month moving average forecast. Do they look the same? Explain why the curves look same or not. (2) Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns. ORDER YOUR PAPER NOW

2. Based on the data of the actual sales in the past 3 years, use regression to develop a trend line that could be used to forecast monthly sales for the next year. Is the slope of this line consistent with what you observed in Question 1? If not, discuss a possible explanation.

3. Use the multiplicative decomposition method on these data. Use this model to forecast sales for each month of the next year. Discuss why the slope of the trend equation with this model is so different from that of the trend equation in Question 2. ORDER YOUR PAPER NOW

4. Which forecasting method would you recommend for Alpine Food Company to forecast its sales of each month of the next year? Why? What else would you recommend Alpine Food Company to consider when forecasting sales for the next year?

Answer these questions in one document and submit before the due date. Make sure you provide evidence for your answer, and include detailed explanation on the method adopted, justification, and reasoning behind your answer.

Important Notes 1)

You may make reasonable assumptions and informed judgements as needed, but make sure to state them clearly in your answer. Do not use assumptions merely to by-pass the challenges faced. 2) Ensure you refer to the marking criteria before finalising the submission. 3) Though it is not a business report, please make sure your submission is well formatted. Make sure that you include the question number so it is clear which question you are answering.

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